Le pessimisme risque de nous plonger dans une récession

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For over a year, various surveys reported that Canadian businesses and consumers are rather pessimistic about the economic situation. Assessing the extent to which this wave of pessimism can cause an economic downturn is a methodological challenge that the authors are addressing in a recent CIRANO study. Using Canadian and U.S. historical data and causal analyses based on autoregressive vector models, the authors suggest that correlations between confidence and economic activity do contain a causal component.

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