Marie Connolly, Researcher and CIRANO Fellow, Professor in the Department of Economics, ESG UQAM, Marc-Antoine Dionne, student at Université du Québec à Montréal (ESG UQAM) and Catherine Haeck, Researcher and CIRANO Fellow, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics, ESG UQAM, presented the highlights of the CIRANO report « Modélisation des effectifs dans les secteurs de la santé et de l’éducation ».
This report provides an estimate of the changing workforce in the health and education sectors based on administrative data. Using data from Statistics Canada's Longitudinal Education-Labour Market Linkage Platform, the researchers track the labour market outcomes of post-secondary graduates in teaching and nursing, two occupations that are currently experiencing recruitment challenges. They present figures on the number of graduates by year for cohorts graduating from 2010 to 2016, as well as their retention rate in the province of graduation. They also present median residency and income paths. This report focuses on Quebec, but the researchers also present figures for Ontario for comparison. The results suggest that few Quebec graduates choose to move outside the province: less than 5% of graduates since 2010 do so. Thus, retention is much higher than in Ontario, which has much higher attrition rates. Using data from the 2016 Canadian Census of Population, the researchers also calculate retention in the profession by age. The results suggest that retention rates in both nursing and education have been relatively stable for nearly 25 years. Contrary to the media message, it does not appear that there is more or less difficulty in retaining new faculty in the profession. It seems that there has always been some attrition rate of about 25%. Finally, they also relayed figures on demographic projections from the Institut de la statistique du Québec. The figures provided in this report can be used as a basis for future simulation work. The researchers conclude with a brief review of some of the initiatives used in other countries to increase enrolment in teaching.
→ Find the video of the webinar on Youtube